If you are an online poker player and want to get really good at it, increasing your wins and decreasing your losses, then you should understand the basics of probability. That’s because poker is a game of math and logic. While most regular people use emotions and luck when placing bets, professional poker players constantly do mental probability calculations to determine their winning chances.
In fact, probability plays the most crucial role in a player’s decision to call, raise, fold, or bluff. If you rely on luck, you are at a disadvantage because your opponents will likely use probability to some degree.
So, if you want to profit from your WPT poker app, here’s a quick guide to understanding probability in poker:
What is Probability?
Probability is a mathematical term defined as the likelihood of a particular outcome happening. It can be expressed from 0 to 1 or as a percentage from 0% to 100%. For instance, a coin flip has two possible outcomes, translating to a ½ or 50% probability of being heads or tails.
How Probability in Online Poker Works
Probability calculations become much more complex in poker as the possible outcomes are greater.
A deck has 52 cards, 4 suits (hearts, spades, diamonds, and clubs), and 13 cards or ranks in each suit (numbers two to ten, King, Queen, Ace, and Jack). From these numbers, your probability of getting a spade, for instance, is 1 in 4 or 25%. For a King, 1 in 13 or 7.69%.
These odds change as the game continues. For example, if you have a King, that means there are three kings left in the remaining 51 cards. So, the probability of you getting another King is even lower, that is 3 in 51 or 5.88%.
To go even further, what is the probability of getting a pair of Kings at the start of the game (pre-flop? For this, you multiply the probability of each card. In this case, 0.0769 by 0.0588 to get 0.0045 or 0.45% probability.
Now that you know basic probability, how can you determine your winning probability with each hand in real time? While charts are available to make this task easier, it might not be as convenient or practical. So, here are some basic probability tricks to keep in mind in poker:
- Determine the probability of improving your hand (getting an “out”) when there are two cards to come (turn and river) by multiplying outs on the flop (first three community cards) with 4.
- If there’s only one card to come, which means there are four cards on the table, multiple outs on the flop with 2 to determine your probability of hitting an out.
- Compare your pot odds with the odds of improving your hand before calling a bet. Pot odds are the ratio of your bet in relation to the total pot. If the pot odds are higher, you may call a bet. If not, you might be better off folding.
Sharpen Your Understanding of Probability for Better Performance on the WPT Poker App
Ditching luck for probability can definitely improve your wins in online poker. But remember, even low probabilities can sometimes occur. This is known as a bad beat. Take it in stride and continue improving your skill.